“The Foole doth thinke he is wise, but the wiseman knowes himselfe to be a Foole,” wrote William Shakespeare in As You Like It, anticipating Charles Darwin’s update: “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”
Both observations are applicable to the workplace, as in Dilbert’s notoriously “clueless” Pointy-Haired Boss, and to everyday situations.
Columbia’s David Dunning and Justin Kruger of NYU conducted a series of experiments more than a decade ago that suggested incompetent performance often results from ignorance of performance standards in cognitive skills like reading comprehension, and physical skills like operating a motor vehicle, and playing tennis.
Volunteers performed humor, grammar, and logic tasks, then viewed their performance scores and again estimated their performance rank.
Competent individuals accurately estimated their rank, whereas incompetent individuals overestimated their ranks despite actual feedback.
Dunning and Kruger posited that incompetent people:
- Overestimate their skill levels
- Overlook other people’s skills
- Underestimate their lack of skill in relation to performance standards
However, training may reverse this “insight blindness.”
Low-skill individuals in some cases can benefit from corrective feedback and recognize their original lack of skill after they participate in skill training.
The Dunning–Kruger effect describes this bias in which unskilled individuals experience “illusory superiority,” when they rate their ability as much higher than average although it is actually much lower than average.
Dunning and Kruger noted that “the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”
These observations were validated by Washington State University’s Joyce Ehrlinger, Kerri Johnson of UCLA, and Cornell’s Matthew Banner.
People also demonstrate “illusory superiority” when they estimate their interpersonal sensitivity – their ability to identify deception and to infer intentions and emotions – compared with their actual sensitivity, according to Columbia’s Daniel R. Ames and Lara K. Kammrath of Wilfrid Laurier University.
Their results replicated previous findings that most people overestimate their social judgment and mind-reading skills, and showed that people who demonstrate least accurate social judgment and “mind-reading” significantly overestimate their relative competence.
Ames and Kammrath suggest that these inaccurate self-assessments are based “in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement.”
Different tasks elicit differing degrees of the illusory superiority bias, according to University of Michigan’s Katherine A. Burson, Richard P. Larrick of Duke University, University of Chicago’s Joshua Klayman.
When performing moderately difficult tasks, best and worst performers provided similarly accurate estimates of their skills.
However, when they performed more difficult tasks, best performers provided less accurate skill estimates than worst performers.
Burson and team proposed a “noise-plus-bias” model to explain erroneous judgments of personal skill across competence levels.
Dunning and Ehrlinger collaborated to show that people’s views of themselves and their skill change when influenced by external cues.
They note that this effect can limit women’s participation in STEM careers (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics).
The team found that women performed equally to men on a science quiz, yet participants underestimated their performance because they assigned low judgments to their general scientific reasoning ability.
This inaccurate underestimate of abilities dissuades many women from entering STEM careers.
The Dunning–Kruger effect may be culturally limited because one study found that East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities, and see underachievement as a chance to improve themselves and cooperate with others.
-*How do you mitigate overestimate and underestimates of your skill performance?
-*Where have you seen inaccurate performance estimate affect long-range career achievement?
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